17 September, 2008

I know next to nothing about finance...but what the hell.

My opinion is that the current financial crisis is NOT bad. Admittedly, I would be less nonchalant if I were more exposed. But I think the net long-term effect of a crisis like this on the economy is positive. Our historic prosperity is a function of innovation and efficiency. Failure, uncertainty and fear are necessary inputs in the production of innovation and efficiency learning.

The question is not "will we have economic setbacks?" but rather "how frequent and deep will the impacts be?" Our present situation is serious, yes. But were it not for the current crisis, the next pothole would likely be an even bigger chasm. Ideally, we want frequent, small bumps in the road; the resulting long term trend will be upward sloping and smooth from a distance. Banks fail almost every other week, but we don't hear about them because our economic system depends upon and absorbs these occasional house cleanings in the long run.

I think the "bailouts" (they can hardly be characterized as bailouts) were probably preferrable to not getting involved, however, I'm sure there were better alternatives now that we have the benefit of hindsight. The important question looking forward is whether or not the federal government will allow the current supply of fear to self-regulate the market or if they will impose inevitably imperfect regulations which foster the type of false security that generated the current high-risk situation.

No matter how much you idiot-proof capitalism, a bigger idiot will always emerge. The two alternatives are (1) reject capitalism, or (2) punish the idiots. There really is no middle ground. You cannot design a better variety of capitalism than the one produced by the free market. So, we would do well to take advantage of what educators refer to as a "teaching moment".

And as for those non-idiots who are nevertheless suffering from the crisis: well, that is the fee we pay to live as the most prosperous generation in the most prosperous nation in history.

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