Updating my VP perspective ex ante

I will probably not be watching the debate tonight. Instead, I will be watching this year’s Trojan Killers play Utah.

But I will probably catch the highlights at some point and I am willing to announce how I will update my beliefs about Palin in advance:

(1) If the debate is considered a draw, then I will maintain my previous belief that she was a great strategic VP pick and she is as prepared to be President as any conceivable alternative.

(2) If Palin goes down in a painful, fist-biting, CBSesque blaze of glory, then I will concede that the national political scene was way out of her league; that she was a high risk VP pick and the House won.

(3) If Palin emerges a winner, then my impression of her will not improve (see (1)). However, I will interpret this outcome as further evidence that Biden was a bad pick, experience doesn’t matter, and politics is about in-group drama.

I encourage others to announce how they will analyze the VP debate ex ante. I suspect many folks (many folks = everyone+/-some error) will just have their priors confirmed regardless and we will be right back where we started.

As an aside, some anti-Palins have interpreted my defense of her as an endorsement. Allow me to clarify. (1) My cynicism extends to ALL candidates. It is not that I think she would be BETTER than others; I just think that she will be no WORSE than any plausible alternative. I don’t consider her apparent incompetence or lack of political profundity as either unique or uniquely dangerous. (2) I am a sucker for ideological-class warfare. I have come to the view that coastal elitism is intolerant, ignorant, hypocritical and ugly. I actually share many of the beliefs of the so-called elitists and I would (in most cases) acknowledge their marginal superiority. However, I disdain their disdain of those who don’t share their (our?) beliefs. Call it cheering for the underdog if you like.