Not So Fast

I agree that this development is interesting and, well, good. But I think the pundits' analysis and the anticipated response overshoots the mark. As I see it:

All we're doing here is substituting faith in one intelligence report for faith in another....intelligence report. The fact that the new report contradicts the previous report should only serve to erode our confidence further—all the more reason to proceed with cautious skepticism. Disappointment over intelligence erring in one direction needs to be balanced with the realization that it can err in the opposite direction. Can we not see the hypocrisy in the eagerness to believe this new report? The take-away here is that figuring this crap out is really hard. I can’t escape the inevitable pun…maybe intelligence just ain’t so intelligent. This is bad, yes, but we shouldn’t allow it to paralyze foreign policy. The stakes remain high.

The affect this news will have on presidential campaigns will be inconsequential. Ultimately, the average American will still, into the foreseeable future, associate foreign policy with national defense. Americans want two things: (1) a leader who will protect them from real and perceived threats and (2) a leader who won’t get them stuck in a decade-long (or longer) war. People’s preferences over these two goods differ, but are not likely to change significantly as a result of the latest report. No candidate will have trouble incorporating the new Iran situation into his/her message. As Bush has already shown us, the issue can be spun anyway you like. People will hear what they want to hear.

That brings me to another point…directed toward the pundits. Why does everyone start gnashing their teeth when Bush spins an issue or tries to sell a policy? That’s what politicians do!!! People have every right to disagree and voice that disagreement. If you’re not convinced by Bush, please, continue to disagree. Rally support for your cause, etc, etc. But don’t be one of those people who accuse Bush of being a liar and demagogue while in the same breath screaming “tax cuts for the rich” when the cuts actually make the tax code more progressive. He was elected, now he is supposed to do what he thinks is right. You might not agree with what he thinks…but hate the policy, don’t hate the game. Sure, Bush comes across as an ass when he's making his case, but we’ll have our chance to elect another ass next November.

That being said, don’t bomb Iran!